TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 07N 106E WEST SLOWLY.
JTWC 23Z取消TCFA，評級降低至Medium。
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.4N
105.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 106.3E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTH OF A
WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). OUTFLOW FROM TD 28W IS INDUCING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER 95W AND STIFLING DEVELOPMENT. A
011933Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER
LAND FROM THE LLC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE LEANING MORE TOWARDS
DISSIPATION, WITH ONLY NAVGEM PREDICTING 95W BECOMING A WEAK,
COMPACT TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF THAILAND BEFORE CROSSING
INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL. ALL OTHERS FORECAST DISSIPATION AFTER
INTERACTING WITH THE MALAYSIAN PENINSULA. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL FAVORABLE AT 28-29 CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1021 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 012230) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N
105.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 104.8E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
SOUTHEAST OF BANGKOK. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
FLARING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTH OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). OUTFLOW FROM TD 28W IS INDUCING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OVER 95W AND STIFLING DEVELOPMENT. A 011933Z 85GHZ SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER LAND FROM THE LLC.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE LEANING MORE TOWARDS DISSIPATION, WITH ONLY NAVGEM
PREDICTING 95W BECOMING A WEAK, COMPACT TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE
GULF OF THAILAND BEFORE CROSSING INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL. ALL OTHERS
FORECAST DISSIPATION AFTER INTERACTING WITH THE MALAYSIAN PENINSULA.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FAVORABLE AT 28-29 CELSIUS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1021 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.2N 100.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 101.3E, APPROXIMATELY
298NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CURVED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE CONSOLIDATING, EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 050305Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD CENTER. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS) AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS POSITIONED OVER LAND,
WHICH IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF THAILAND ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE MALAY PENINSULA. ONCE BACK OVER WATER, FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) SHOULD AID IN DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
