dom

JTWC德法T7.0

TPPS10 PGTW 050919

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN)

B. 05/0850Z

C. 18.21S

D. 157.95E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD
A DT OF 7.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
05/0557Z 17.75S 156.82E SSMS
05/0630Z 17.82S 156.98E SSMS


MARTIN

krichard2011

四級強烈熱帶氣旋 Niran
小鋼砲現正爆發中 CDO對流爆的相當激烈

dom

對流猛烈 兩報T7.0
就看JTWC會否升C5
OW+CMG
很勵志

TPPS10 PGTW 051211

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN)

B. 05/1140Z

C. 18.66S

D. 159.03E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD
A DT OF 7.0. MET IS 6.5. PT IS 7.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
05/0630Z 17.82S 156.98E SSMS


MARTIN

dom

JTWC12Z升格五級颶風

23P.NIRAN.140kts.917mb.18.8S.159.1E.

dom

BoM12Z升格澳式五級強烈熱帶氣旋

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20210305/1200Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: NIRAN
ADVISORY NR: 2021/17
OBS PSN: 05/1200Z S1842 E15906
CB: WI 240NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL600
MOV: ESE 25KT
INTST CHANGE: NC
C: 931HPA
MAX WIND: 110KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 05/1800 S1954 E16112
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 110KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 06/0000 S2106 E16312
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 110KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 06/0600 S2224 E16536
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 100KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 06/1200 S2336 E16800
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 90KT
RMK: NIRAN MOVING OUT OF AUSTRALIAN AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY
NXT MSG: NO MSG EXP

dom

JTWC與BoM預測巔峰(C5)維持約+12H, 隨後開始進入強風切區域

老農民版夜神月

JTWC18Z分析CI值維持7.0,T值略降為6.5

TPPS10 PGTW 051814

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN)

B. 05/1750Z

C. 19.84S

D. 161.45E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T6.5/7.0/D2.0/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF
7.0. MET YEILDS 6.5. PT YIELDS 6.5. DBO MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   YOUNG

老農民版夜神月

JTWC18Z定強略微調降至130KT,中心氣壓925百帕

23P NIRAN 210305 1800 19.9S 161.4E SHEM 130 925

TXPS21 KNES 051811
TCSWSP

A. 23P (NIRAN)

B. 05/1730Z

C. 19.8S

D. 161.4E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T6.0/7.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. MG
EYE SURROUNDED IN CMG WITH W MEASURING 0.5 DEG YIELDS A DT=6.0 WITH NO
EYE ADJUSTMENT. THE MET=6.5. THE PT=6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SANDUSKY

TXPS41 PHFO 051726

TCSSP1



SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI

1725 UTC FRI MAR 05 2021



A. TROPICAL CYCLONE NIRAN



B. 05/1640Z



C. 19.5S



D. 160.9E



E. HIMAWARI-8



F. T6.0/7.0/D1.0/24 HRS



G. IR



H. REMARKS...LG SURROUNDING RING YIELDS AN EYE NUMBER OF 5.0.

CLOUD FILLED EYE WITH WARMEST TEMP AT LG SURROUNDED BY CMG GIVES

NO EYE ADJUSTMENT...AND DT IS 5.0. MET AND PT ARE 6.0. FT BASED ON

MET. CI HELD AT 7.0 DUE TO INITIAL WEAKENING CONSTRAINTS.



I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL



$$