dom

JTWC12Z降格C2

23P NIRAN 210306 1200 24.3S 169.5E SHEM 85 962

老農民版夜神月

已進入紐西蘭氣象局管轄區,FMS於12Z發出最終報,待會紐西蘭氣象局應該就會開始發報

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 061344 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NIRAN CENTRE 966HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0S
169.2E AT 061200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS EIR AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
32 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 75 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 95 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 125 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT


SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NIRAN CONTINUES ITS RAPID EAST SOUTHEAST
TRACK WITH AN EMBEDDED CENTER. CONVECTION IS REDUCED IN RADIAL EXTENT
WITH CLOUD TOP WARMING. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD BUT LLCC IN AREA OF
MODERATE TO HIGH NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SST AROUND 27 DEGRESS CELCIUS.
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE STEERED EAST SOUTHEAST BY THE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN. DVORAK BASED ON EMBEDDED PATTERN
WITH CENTRE EMBEDDED IN OW AND NO BANDING FEATURE YIELDING DT 3.5.
MET 4.0 & PT 4.0. FT BASED ON MET THUS T4.0/4.5/W2.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 26.6S 174.8E MOV ESE AT 29 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 29.0S 179.4W MOV ESE AT 28 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 30.6S 174.3W MOV ESE AT 27 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 31.6S 170.4W MOV ESE AT 24 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE


THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON NIRAN.

	Time (UTC)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	12 pm March 6	3	24.0S	169.2E	110
+6hr	6 pm March 6	3	25.3S	171.9E	140
+12hr	12 am March 7	2	26.6S	174.8E	165
+18hr	6 am March 7	2	27.9S	177.7E	195
+24hr	12 pm March 7	1	29.0S	179.4W	220
+36hr	12 am March 8	1	30.6S	174.3W	280
+48hr	12 pm March 8	tropical low	31.6S	170.4W	345
+60hr	12 am March 9	tropical low	31.9S	167.8W	430
+72hr	12 pm March 9	tropical low	32.0S	166.0W	520

老農民版夜神月

JTWC18Z降格C1

23P NIRAN 210306 1800 26.7S 173.5E SHEM 65 977

老農民版夜神月

紐西蘭氣象局於2117Z對其發出第一報

TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF NEW ZEALAND AT 2117 UTC 06-Mar-2021

CURRENT STATUS OF CYCLONE ACTIVITY

Tropical cyclone Niran (Category 3) was located near 25.7S 172.8E or
about 405 nautical miles (750km) to the southeast of Noumea,New
Caledonia at 06/18000UTC today (7am Sunday NZ local time). Maximum
winds near the centre are estimated to be about 65 knots (120 km/h).
The system is moving east-southeast and is weakening rapidly.

FORECAST TO 1200 UTC MON 08-MAR-2021
Tropical cyclone Niran is expected to continue moving eastsoutheast
and weaken further. The system is expected to move close to or over
Raoul Island overnight tonight or early Monday morning as a deep
tropical low.

OUTLOOK UNTIL 1200 UTC THU 11-MAR-2021
Tropical cyclone Niran is expected to be re-classified as a deep sub
tropical low while remaining over open waters to the far east of
Raoul Island. No other significant tropical lows expected in the area.


The next bulletin will be issued by 0000 UTC Mon 08-Mar-2021

老農民版夜神月

JTWC00Z再降格成為TS

23P NIRAN 210307 0000 27.3S 175.7E SHEM 50 991

dom

JTWC03Z發佈Final Warning

WTPS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 025   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z --- NEAR 27.3S 175.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.3S 175.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 29.5S 177.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 27.9S 177.3E.
07MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 572
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOW FULLY EXPOSED. THE INITIAL POSITION
WAS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PGTW
ESTIMATE OF ST3.0/45KTS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE (ADT) WITH A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.4/53KTS AND
EXTRAPOLATED USING A PARTIAL PASS FROM A 062212Z METOP-B ASCAT
IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING
OFFSET BY VERY STRONG (30-40KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) 24-25C. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. THE HARSH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, ALONG WITH THE DECREASED SSTS,
HAS DECREASED THE SYSTEM INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AND IS EXPECTED TO
COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12 WITH ONLY A 70NM SPREAD.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST TRACK
AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER DUE TO THE INCREASING SPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
070000Z IS 27 FEET.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

紐西蘭氣象局判定已成為後熱帶氣旋

TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF NEW ZEALAND AT 0151 UTC 07-Mar-2021

CURRENT STATUS OF CYCLONE ACTIVITY

Low (former Cylone Niran) was located near 26.8S 175.7E, or about 580
nautical miles (1080km) to the far southeast of Noumea, New Caledonia
at 07/0000UTC today (1pm Sunday NZ local time). The system is moving
quickly towards the east-southeast and is weakening rapidly.

FORECAST TO 1200 UTC MON 08-MAR-2021
Low (former Cyclone Niran) is expected to continue moving
eastsoutheast and weaken further. The system is expected to move
close to or over Raoul Island overnight tonight or early Monday
morning as a deep tropical low.

OUTLOOK UNTIL 1200 UTC THU 11-MAR-2021
Low (former Cyclone Niran) should to lie over open waters to the far
east of Raoul Island, and it is expected to weaken further while
moving eastwards. No other significant tropical lows expected in the
area.

The next bulletin will be issued by 0000 UTC Mon 08-Mar-2021

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