09S.Emang 雲系幾近散架

麻友飯 · 2013-1-16 13:34

老J的預測:
FORECAST DATA

Time		Position		Strength		Wind Probabilities		Wind Model
GMT	Lead	Lat	Long	Peak Wind	Cat	TS	Cat 1 or Above	Wind Field
16 Jan, 6:00	12 hrs	14.9 S	78.4 E	35 kts	TS	To 12 hrs	To 12 hrs	N/A
16 Jan, 18:00	24 hrs	15.2 S	76.8 E	40 kts	TS	To 24 hrs	To 24 hrs	N/A
17 Jan, 6:00	36 hrs	15.6 S	74.6 E	45 kts	TS	To 36 hrs	To 36 hrs	N/A
17 Jan, 18:00	48 hrs	16.0 S	72.7 E	50 kts	TS	To 48 hrs	To 48 hrs	N/A
18 Jan, 18:00	72 hrs	16.4 S	69.3 E	50 kts	TS	To 72 hrs	To 72 hrs	N/A
19 Jan, 18:00	96 hrs	16.8 S	66.6 E	50 kts	TS	To 96 hrs	To 96 hrs	N/A
20 Jan, 18:00	120 hrs	17.4 S	64.0 E	50 kts	TS	To 120 hrs	To 120 hrs	N/

強度一直停在50KNOTS 未能升至CAT1水平增強停滯
可能沒撐到馬達加斯加就掰掰了.....

阿隆 · 2013-1-16 23:43

開梅 · 2013-1-17 00:27

也實在是很誇張，西太平洋我找到醞釀期最長者，目前也才6天，這個遠遠超越這項紀錄了

frintezza · 2013-1-19 14:31

外遊後回來了

Emang還沒撤編喔, 而且不知在哪個時候, 再次被評為LOW

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 09S) LOCATED NEAR15.2S 74.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 70.9E, APPROXIMATELY 510 NMSOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWSA FULLY EXPOSED, POORLY DEFINED, AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC) WITH SCATTERED SHALLOW CONVECTION MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THELLCC. THIS IS READILY EVIDENT ON A 181337Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS.RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA SHOWS WEAK (05-10 KNOT) WINDS OVER THENORTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC AND 20 TO 25 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS FEEDINGINTO THE SOUTHERN HALF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATEVERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS) WITH MINIMAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACETEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AT 26 TO 27 DEGREESCELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.DUE TO THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FORREDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24HOURS REMAINS LOW.

大致上就說Emang LLCC外露, 對流鬆散並集中在LLCC北面, 風切中等, 輻散微弱

看它還能撐多久