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frintezza|2013-1-19 14:31
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顯示全部樓層
外遊後回來了
Emang還沒撤編喔, 而且不知在哪個時候, 再次被評為LOW
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 09S) LOCATED NEAR15.2S 74.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 70.9E, APPROXIMATELY 510 NMSOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWSA FULLY EXPOSED, POORLY DEFINED, AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC) WITH SCATTERED SHALLOW CONVECTION MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THELLCC. THIS IS READILY EVIDENT ON A 181337Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS.RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA SHOWS WEAK (05-10 KNOT) WINDS OVER THENORTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC AND 20 TO 25 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS FEEDINGINTO THE SOUTHERN HALF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATEVERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS) WITH MINIMAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACETEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AT 26 TO 27 DEGREESCELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.DUE TO THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FORREDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24HOURS REMAINS LOW.
大致上就說Emang LLCC外露, 對流鬆散並集中在LLCC北面, 風切中等, 輻散微弱
看它還能撐多久
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