millerkit31

雲圖看97w漸漸成形，應已具熱低級數，現在其身處副高南側，與副高中心稍稍偏北，故預計97w初期大致會向西北偏西移動，及後須待北上更接近副高，才有機會出現更大西向量。此外，香港天文台有預測及後(約48小時後)中國上空反氣旋將再度增強，此時就開始要觀察該反氣旋會否與西太副高連結，做成高壓牆，而使97停止北移，轉向西或西南西移動啦!

logdog

ktf 發表於 2013-9-11 15:14
97W低層已經明顯轉起來,高空有雙急流輻散外掛,所以高層紅外線看起來已很有樣子
低層環流大還要繞一繞
發展 ...

是說 中200元樂透
還是中1E的樂透機率?
我倒覺得GFS的機率沒那麼低...
關鍵在於97W的移速

丹尼兒

CWB 一周預測 萬宜16號後通過琉球東南海面時 直接畫出滯留打轉

看來CWB這次也蠻頭大的 EC GFS兩主流對槓中...

krichard2011

個人觀點，GFS的數值預測我認為不無可能，根據CWB一周天氣圖來看，後期不排除會陷入鞍型場，甚至兩個高壓合併成一個堅固的高壓牆擋在那裏，要是這樣，未來這個系統就有可能偏西甚至偏西南的方向接近台灣。

結構方面，南北側的高層流出相當好，因此幅散值還不錯，因此對流能源源不覺得爆發出來，不過周圍的風切稍強了一些。從多頻掃描來看目前底層，深層對流仍幾乎成一直線，螺旋性還不是很明顯，未來還有待整合。

krichard2011

97W似乎有開始旋轉起來的趨勢了
不過主要對流還是比較鬆散加上整體環流較龐大
整合起來可能需要一些時間
話說NRL今天給的雲圖資料好像都是錯的 = =
只有部分是對的...

martin191919

TCFA
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.4N 147.8E TO 22.0N 142.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
111330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N
146.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.2N
145.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 146.4E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH BROAD CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING LOOSELY
INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 111157Z
METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
IS DISPLACED AWAY FROM THE ILL-DEFINED CENTER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.
HOWEVER, A 110220Z OCEANSAT IMAGE AND A 111200Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICT A
WELL-DEFINED BUT ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH WEAK CORE WINDS (10 TO
15 KNOTS) AND STRONGER PERIPHERAL WINDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS, TYPICAL
OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND
LACK OF DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KTS)
AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, ENHANCED BY A POINT SOURCE OVER THE
CENTER AND TWO LARGE TUTT CELLS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND AGGRESSIVE MODEL DEVELOPMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

martin191919

先補上圖
離97W"可能"命名在即，它的系統吸收了正發展中的95W(已撤編)，令其無法發展。然而令97W橫流擴大，但螺旋性不明顯，而風切亦令97W發展受一定影響，強度方仍能看好，能否cat.5卻言之過早。

t02436

各預報模式路徑預測(00.06Z)大致分為兩派


1.後期槽線南下為朝向日本開啟康莊大道
FNOMC



CMC



2.30N形成高壓壩導致後期路徑偏西或西南接近華南(中)沿海一帶


GFS


NCEP





GFS從兩天前就大致維持這種路徑
可以說是相當有把握
當然後期變數可說無比的大


近兩天副高會開始東退
所以會從目前向西緩移開始往西北加速
後期就看北方系統的造化了
如果槽線順利南下
當然轉東北機率就大增
如果高壓牆持續壓著
就大概以沿南緣西行為主
至於轉西南的話大牆要很強勢hold的很緊


然後在97W(準萬宜)離開之後
預測在15N155E以東又有熱帶系統產生的機會


ECMWF預測97W移向日本
後頭蓄勢待發的低壓系統將在中秋連假過後(+240)
接近臺灣東方外海



目前97W貌似有旋轉情形發生
雲系廣泛渦度比-6hr明顯泛紅

稍早已發TCFA
明天有機會一舉成颱


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