04S.Bruce MFR:125kt 減弱轉化巔峰C5達近9年來最強!＊

jwpk9899 · 2013-12-15 10:25

  三級熱帶氣旋/特強熱帶氣旋
編號：03U/R(04S)
名稱：Bruce

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2013  年 12 月 15 日 10 時
　命名日期　　：2013  年 12 月 18 日 08 時
　消散日期　　：2013  年 12 月 26 日 02 時
　登陸地點　　：暫無
  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
美國海軍 (JTWC)    ： 140  kts (  CAT 5  )
澳洲氣象局 (BOM)  ：  85 kts (  CAT 3  )
留尼旺氣象部(MFR)： 125→120  kts (  VITC   ) - 註：2013.12.20 00Z UTC由MFR接手
海平面最低氣壓　： 912 百帕→920百帕
  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
94S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.6.4S.103.9E

好久沒有發到擾動了~
以上資料來自 : JTWC、BOM、颱風論壇編輯製作

t02436 · 2013-12-16 06:43

評級LOW~
GFS預測將與93S雙旋共舞~

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.0S 99.6E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FRAGMENTED BAND OF FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 150310Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT, BUT IS CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE TO HIGH 20 TO 30 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW

t02436 · 2013-12-16 18:33

BOM編號03U
目前上望Cat.2/80Kts+

t02436 · 2013-12-17 00:06

JTWC升評Medium
BOM上看85Kts
MFR開始發出展望

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0S 99.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3S 97.5E, APPROXIMATELY 284 NM NORTH OF COCOS ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD BAND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 160543Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE. ALSO A 161110Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS LOOSELY ORGANIZED FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE UNDER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) CURRENTLY AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS (20 TO 30 KNOTS), ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK UNDER THE ANTICYCLONE WHICH WILL PROVIDE LOWER VWS AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

阿隆 · 2013-12-17 09:44

本帖最後由阿隆於 2013-12-17 09:52 編輯

過去一天迅速增強螺旋已現已經發出TCFA!
預測路徑是先往南掉,除非短期再呈猛爆並轉以經度移動,否則這位置TC若趨南強度展望將受制。

krichard2011 · 2013-12-17 18:20

從雲圖來看螺旋性已經相當明顯
不過底層還是有待建立
環境方面垂直風切還有待改善
倒是水氣供應應該沒有太大的問題
BOM目前上看3級熱帶氣旋

jwpk9899 · 2013-12-18 05:19

最新一報老J升格04S
上看70kt

krichard2011 · 2013-12-18 08:37

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2013-12-18 08:39 編輯

正式升格一級熱帶氣旋
命名Bruce 上看四級熱帶氣旋
At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Bruce was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude ten decimal three south (10.3S)
longitude ninety six decimal four east (96.4E)
Recent movement : southwest at 5 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 995 hPa