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krichard2011|2013-12-22 09:06
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顯示全部樓層
沒意外的話...
他已經成為西南印繼2004年Gafilo以來
最強的熱帶氣旋
MFR這一報直接上修125kt
WTIO30 FMEE 220045
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/3/20132014
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BRUCE)
2.A POSITION 2013/12/22 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 79.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0/7.0/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 912 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 125 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :35 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 320 SE: 450 SW: 320 NW: 310
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SW: 170 NW: 170
64 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 120
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/12/22 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND=120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2013/12/23 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 77.6 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2013/12/23 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2013/12/24 00 UTC: 28.2 S / 79.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2013/12/24 12 UTC: 30.5 S / 82.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2013/12/25 00 UTC: 31.5 S / 87.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/12/26 00 UTC: 31.8 S / 98.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
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