蜜露

補充 現在是南半球風季展開  
他們稱2013-14風季

Amara 是西南印區的編號第一個旋風

這隻 Bruce 是澳海區的編號第二個旋風

(前一個編號一號是11月20-2月1日的 Alessia旋風)

不過其他海域好像沒有像西太平洋的國際編號01 xx颱風 這樣稱呼?

krichard2011

這隻增強的速度也挺快的
命名後才經過幾個小時就增強為二級了
未來上看四級...95kt

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0713 UTC 18/12/2013
Name: Tropical Cyclone Bruce
Identifier: 03U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 10.9S
Longitude: 95.4E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [230 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 988 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/3HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  18/1200: 11.3S  94.9E:     030 [055]:  055  [100]:  990
+12:  18/1800: 11.6S  94.1E:     040 [075]:  060  [110]:  990
+18:  19/0000: 11.8S  93.4E:     050 [095]:  060  [110]:  987
+24:  19/0600: 12.1S  92.5E:     070 [130]:  065  [120]:  984
+36:  19/1800: 12.5S  90.9E:     090 [165]:  080  [150]:  973
+48:  20/0600: 13.0S  89.0E:     110 [205]:  090  [165]:  964
+60:  20/1800: 13.5S  86.9E:     140 [260]:  095  [175]:  960
+72:  21/0600: 14.0S  84.5E:     170 [315]:  095  [175]:  956
+96:  22/0600: 16.4S  79.9E:     230 [425]:  095  [175]:  951
+120: 23/0600: 19.7S  77.6E:     275 [510]:  085  [155]:  956

krichard2011

從底層掃描來看
底層風眼已經開始建立起來了
JTWC強度已升到Cat.1
BOM強度上看 100 kt
北方水氣供應相當充沛
沒有乾空氣干擾 垂直風切中偏弱
風切未來也有減弱的趨勢
強度方面以目前來講是看好的...

krichard2011

超渾圓大眼...
CDO也在加強中
JTWC上看C4 不排除更強
後期有可能與Amara互旋也可以觀察...
以下是NCEP數值的模擬風場圖 可參考
22號後期不排除與 Amara 產生藤原效應...

krichard2011

這一報正式進入MFR的管轄範圍 BOM上一報的報文中最後一行有提到
There will be no further bulletins for this system by Perth TCWC.
所以上一報似乎也是BOM的最後一報...
眼牆相當扎實 個人認為不排除有挑戰Cat.5的可能...
不過沒意外的話 應該是一隻純欣賞用的無害旋...



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/3/20132014
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BRUCE)
2.A POSITION 2013/12/20 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3 S / 89.6 E
  (THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
  MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
  RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  28 KT NE: 170 SE: 410 SW: 300 NW: 200
  34 KT NE: 170 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 180
  48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 130
  64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
  12H: 2013/12/20 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 87.2 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  24H: 2013/12/21 00 UTC: 14.3 S / 84.8 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  36H: 2013/12/21 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 82.2 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  48H: 2013/12/22 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  60H: 2013/12/22 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 78.4 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  72H: 2013/12/23 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 77.3 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
  96H: 2013/12/24 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 77.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  120H: 2013/12/25 00 UTC: 28.3 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.0+

krichard2011

話說怎麼似乎沒有什麼人在關心南印度洋的這兩隻這隻
悄悄地Bruce已經比過了他的前輩Amara...
JTWC 已經給到125 kts 風眼相當清晰
眼雖然大了些...
不過幾乎清澈見底...CDO也相當扎實

P.S MFR的RSMC Bulletin怎麼都只放一個熱帶氣旋
早上是只有Bruce沒有Amara
這一報是有Amara卻沒有Bruce 是搞輪流發表就是了?
不過路徑圖上已經升格 Intense Tropical Cyclone了...只是不知道風速
----------------------------------------------------------

說著說著MFR就放上來了...
WTIO30 FMEE 200715
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/3/20132014
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BRUCE)
2.A POSITION 2013/12/20 AT 0600 UTC:
  WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6 S / 88.4 E
  (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
  MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 935 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
  RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :41 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  28 KT NE: 220 SE: 500 SW: 520 NW: 220
  34 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 140
  48 KT NE: 130 SE: 190 SW: 180 NW: 120
  64 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
  12H: 2013/12/20 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 86.2 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  24H: 2013/12/21 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 83.5 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  36H: 2013/12/21 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  48H: 2013/12/22 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 79.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  60H: 2013/12/22 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  72H: 2013/12/23 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 77.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
  96H: 2013/12/24 06 UTC: 26.8 S / 78.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  120H: 2013/12/25 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 83.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
  T=CI=6.5

Meow

MFR 給 Bruce 風速 110 節，成為 Funso 以來南半球最強風暴，並上望 115 節。

1. WTIO30 FMEE 200715
   
2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
   
3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
   
4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/3/20132014
   
5. 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  3  (BRUCE)
   
6. 2.A POSITION 2013/12/20 AT 0600 UTC:
   
7. WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6 S / 88.4 E
   
8. (THIRTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
   
9. MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
   
10. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 1.0/6 H
    
11. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 935 HPA
    
12. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
    
13. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :41 KM
    
14. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
    
15. 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 500 SW: 520 NW: 220
    
16. 34 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 140
    
17. 48 KT NE: 130 SE: 190 SW: 180 NW: 120
    
18. 64 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 90
    
19. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
    
20. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
    
21. 1.B FORECASTS:
    
22. 12H: 2013/12/20 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 86.2 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
23. 24H: 2013/12/21 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 83.5 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
24. 36H: 2013/12/21 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
25. 48H: 2013/12/22 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 79.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
26. 60H: 2013/12/22 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
27. 72H: 2013/12/23 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 77.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
    
28. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
    
29. 96H: 2013/12/24 06 UTC: 26.8 S / 78.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
    
30. 120H: 2013/12/25 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 83.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
    
31. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
    
32. T=CI=6.5-
    
33. (CORRECTIVE AT 5.5+ FOR CI OF 00Z). THE SYSTEM SHOWS ALL THE CHARACTERISTICS OF AN INTENSE ONE WIT
    
34. H A WELL DEFINED ROUND EYE WITHIN A VERY COLD CLOUD TOP CDO.
    
35. UP TO SATURDAY, BRUCE MAY KEEP ON MOVING GENERALLY SOUTH-WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD UNDER THE
    
36. STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES EXISTING SOUTH-EAST.
    
37. FROM SUNDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND A HIGH TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTE
    
38. D TO MOVE IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO RECURVE SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-EASTW
    
39. ARD.
    
40. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GOOD THANKS TO A POWERFULL DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL ... SO SOME INCREASE
    
41. IN STRENGTH IS STILL POSSIBLE. TOMORROW THE DUAL OUTFLOW PATTERN SHOULD CHANGE TO A SINGLE ONE AND
    
42. ...POSSIBLY A SLIGHT INCREASE OF EASTERLY SHEAR IS POSSIBLE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJU
    
43. STED CONSEQUENTLY.
    
44. THE STRENGTHENING WINDSHEAR AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ONLY BE SENSIBLE ON THE SYSTEM ON
    
45. THUESDAY BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS OVER VERY LOW OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AS IT WILL APPROACH 20S.

複製代碼

krichard2011

眼牆有內縮的跡象
似乎正在從大眼轉型為中型眼當中
要是順利成功 強度應該能更進一步增強
雖然結構似乎有些不太對稱 不過CDO還是相當扎實
不排除有機會上看C5 MFR 強度 VITC 也似乎不無可能