1404 琵琶 FW 宣告死亡

martin191919 · 2014-3-30 13:16

本帖最後由 martin191919 於 2014-3-30 13:19 編輯

JTWC : 取消LOW

ABPW10 PGTW 300600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/300600Z-310600ZMAR2014//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
         A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
         B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
               (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.1N 164.0E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
               (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
         A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
         B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
//NNNN

甜心 · 2014-3-30 18:22

今天雖然被取消LOW評級但我們中央氣象局目前對它仍維持在一般低氣壓等級播報，整體環流而且尚還不錯雖然過去一天沒有甚麼多大的變化出現但有個問題仍待後續整合改善就是它目前中心附近在裸奔...。

krichard2011 · 2014-3-30 20:19

ECMWF與之前相比
預測強度明顯調弱
現在呢反而是GFS預測出了一個不弱的系統

t02436 · 2014-3-31 14:00

再度評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.7N 160.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 145 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, POORLY-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.
RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY SUPPORTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15
KNOT WINDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM POHNPEI SHOW 05 TO 10 KNOT
EASTERLY WINDS WITH SLP NEAR 1007 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE
TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

==============
現在來看對流還是相當稀少
甚至有裸奔情況發生
目前環境場來看
只有10N以下適合發展
風切強爆了= =

krichard2011 · 2014-3-31 15:23

可能成為今年第一個發布海警的颱風!?
GFS最近這幾報都預測從台灣東部外海通過
雖然說仍有一段距離不過變數在於副高...
至於強度方面就不怎麼看好了

甜心 · 2014-3-31 19:00

95w 低氣壓又重新評級為Low氣象局方面維持不變，過去兩天它呈現中心裸奔且慢速移動的狀態今天依然還在160度線那邊的遠洋海域緩慢向西移動跟重整組織當中。

麻友飯 · 2014-3-31 20:37

很久沒見:D
ECMWF預報了多天的準05W
在最近幾報都呈現近岸減弱在棉蘭老島(民答那峨島)對開消磨掉
反而GFS就愈來愈進取
報出前幾天EC走菲東的路徑

不過照上一年的經驗
EC準確在路徑和生成預報
GFS就在強度表現好一點
;P儘管看看今年兩者比拼吧!;P

我看風切會抑制05W的發展但應該不至於磨掉吧?
只要05W達中颱下限的話對風切也有一定的耐力

意願上
我寧願05W走GFS的路徑
來北緯20度玩一下吧!;P
為2014風季開鑼!:loveliness: