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桜slime|2014-4-3 05:09
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本帖最後由 桜slime 於 2014-4-3 06:03 編輯
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 1.5N
150.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 1.9N 148.1E, APPROXIMATELY 724 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 021658Z 37 GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED
LLCC, BUT RECENTLY THE EIR INDICATES THAT THE SYMMETRY IS IMPROVING.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE AS
WELL. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARD THE
ISLAND OF PALAU AS THE CYCLONE DEVELOPS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF
THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOUS IS HIGH.
JTWC已發出TCFA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 02N 148E WEST SLOWLY.
JMA亦已升格TD,但緯度過低,天氣圖沒有標上TD
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