老農民版夜神月

  特強熱帶氣旋  
編號：10-20202021 ( 19 S )
名稱：Faraji

  基本資料     
擾動編號日期：2021 年 02 月 04 日 22 時
JTWC升格日期:2021 年 02 月 05 日 14 時
命名日期　　：2021 年 02 月 05 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2021 年 02 月 16 日 20 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
法國留尼旺氣象局 (MFR) ：125 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：140 kt ( Super TY )
海平面最低氣壓：925 百帕

  擾動編號資料  
90S.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-11S-80E

以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

MFR已對90S有所反應,GFS亦看好其發展

老農民版夜神月

JTWC評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.2S 81.3E, APPROXIMATELY 900 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 041345Z SSMIS 91 GHZ SATELLITE
IMAGE DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)WITH FLARING
CONVECTION ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 90S IS IN A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)
ONLY TO BE OFFSET BY STRONG (25-30 KTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC很快的於18Z便將90S升格為TD

90S INVEST 210204 1800 11.6S 81.4E SHEM 25 1006

霧峰追風者

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.2S 81.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 81.4E, APPROXIMATELY 900
NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
AND A 042223Z SSMIS 85 GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALOFT. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 90S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, (MODERATE 20-25KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND CONTINUE
TO TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

02Z剛出爐的風場掃描，顯示90S目前中心旁已有明顯的一片35~40KT的風旗
稍晚機構便應該會有所反應

dom

JTWC發佈TCFA

90S INVEST 210205 0600 12.6S 81.4E SHEM 35 1003

老農民版夜神月

MFR編號熱帶低壓第10號