老農民版夜神月

MFR升格熱帶氣旋，持續上望強烈熱帶氣旋（ITC）,90KT

老農民版夜神月

高層風眼已再度出現開眼跡象

老農民版夜神月

風眼逐漸開啟,JTWC21ZT值已達5.0,若無意外00Z報定強可能調升至至少C2強度

TPXS10 PGTW 062118

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI)

B. 06/2045Z

C. 14.87S

D. 79.61E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS  STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A
DT OF 6.0. MET YIELDS 4.5. PT YIELDS 5.0. DBO CONSTRAINTS
LIMITING CHANGE TO 1 OR LESS OVER SIX HOURS.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   HEINS

老農民版夜神月

MFR00Z定強85KT，距離ITC僅差臨門一腳。並且MFR於此報中再上調上望至100KT

FKIO20 FMEE 070001
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20210207 /0001Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: FARAJI
ADVISORY NR: 2021/07
OBS PSN: 07/0000Z S1455 E07933
CB: WI 140NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL540
MOV: S 02KT
INTST CHANGE: INTSF
C: 965HPA
MAX WIND: 85KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 07/0600Z S1501 E07942
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 90KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 07/1200Z S1506 E07951
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 95KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 07/1800Z S1507 E08004
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 98KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 08/0000Z S1504 E08021
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 100KT
RMK: NIL.
NXT MSG: 20210207 /0600Z=

dom

底層很鞏固，JTWC00Z升格C3，ADT上升，眼溫也轉正了

19S FARAJI 210207 0000 14.9S 79.7E SHEM 100 960

老農民版夜神月

JTWC00Z德法分析T值已達5.5,看來有可能下午或晚上其強度便可以超越JTWC一直預估的巔峰110KT

TPXS10 PGTW 070025

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI)

B. 06/2345Z

C. 14.85S

D. 79.57E

E. THREE/GOES-IO

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, TO YIELD A
DT OF 5.5. MET YIELDS 5.0. PT YIELDS 5.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   06/1946Z  14.80S  79.62E  MMHS


   HEINS

dom

TPXS10 PGTW 070253

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI)

B. 07/0215Z

C. 14.81S

D. 79.74E

E. THREE/GOES-IO

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A
DT OF 6.0. MET YIELDS 5.5. PT YIELDS 6.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/2302Z 14.87S 79.65E SSMS
06/2325Z 14.88S 79.63E SSMS


HEINS

有點勵志 JTWC德法T6.0
ADT0200Z眼溫14.8
B+WMG，估計補一補就能W+WMG
就看JTWC06Z能否C4

dom

MFR升格強烈熱帶氣旋(ITC),定105/939

FKIO20 FMEE 070634
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20210207/0634Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: FARAJI
ADVISORY NR: 2021/08
OBS PSN: 07/0600Z S1448 E07942
CB: WI 150NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL520


MOV: S 01KT
INTST CHANGE: INTSF
C: 939HPA
MAX WIND: 105KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 07/1200Z S1454 E07953
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 100KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 07/1800Z S1456 E08006
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 95KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 08/0000Z S1455 E08024
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 93KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 08/0600Z S1451 E08048
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 90KT
RMK: NIL.
NXT MSG: 20210207/1200Z=