dom

JTWC06Z德法分析T值達6.5（B+WMG），眼牆對流又補回來了

TPXS10 PGTW 080600

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI)

B. 08/0545Z

C. 14.17S

D. 81.29E

E. THREE/GOES-IO

F. T6.5/6.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B YIELDS
AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A DT OF 6.5.
MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
08/0039Z 14.32S 80.92E MMHS
08/0230Z 14.23S 81.02E GPMI


YOUNG

dom

JTWC06Z升格C4
由07/00Z開始計算
100->115->110->115->110->120

19S FARAJI 210208 0600 14.2S 81.5E SHEM 120 938

老農民版夜神月

新底層非常完美，十分暴力，實在令人讚嘆

老農民版夜神月

JTWC09Z新報又一次認為已達巔峰，即將開始減弱
就看和MFR哪個更準確了

老農民版夜神月

JTWC已經連續至少三報T6.5,定強有望再上調至125或130節

TPXS10 PGTW 081225
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI)
B. 08/1145Z
C. 14.22S
D. 82.01E
E. THREE/GOES-IO
F. T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.0. MET AND PT YIELD 6.5. DBO MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
08/0804Z 14.22S 81.70E MMHS
08/0807Z 14.23S 81.60E AMS2
YOUNG

dom

MFR將強度提升至110kts

FKIO20 FMEE 081212
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20210208/1212Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: FARAJI
ADVISORY NR: 2021/13
OBS PSN: 08/1200Z S1414 E08149
CB: WI 170NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL540
MOV: E 05KT
INTST CHANGE: INTSF
C: 932HPA
MAX WIND: 110KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 08/1800Z S1413 E08233
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 110KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 09/0000Z S1417 E08316
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 110KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 09/0600Z S1428 E08358
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 105KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 09/1200Z S1442 E08436
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 100KT
RMK: NIL.
NXT MSG: 20210208/1800Z=

dom

JTWC12Z定強125節，西側對流猛烈，底層一直而來都很不錯，大概還有最後12h的低風切環境

19S.FARAJI.125kts.933mb.14.2S.82E.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC於12Z果然給出了125節，看接下來還能不能繼續衝