簽到天數: 1650 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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老農民版夜神月|2021-2-9 05:28
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JTWC21Z升格C5紀念性一報,實話說昨天的這個時候MFR,JTWC雙雙都已經報出已達巔峰,即將開始減弱的預測
實在想不到24個小時後的現在會是迎來一個C5的正式報文,真的是沒想到...
WTXS32 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 14.2S 82.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 82.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.3S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 14.6S 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.2S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.6S 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.5S 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.1S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.4S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 82.8E.
08FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
727 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DENSE, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH WELL-DEFINED
20 NM DIAMETER EYE AND CHARACTERISTICS OF AN ANNULAR TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION OF A 081529Z
ASCAT-A IMAGE WITH A COMPACT, SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 140 KTS IS SET WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (140 KTS, PGTW/FMEE), AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T7.2 (146 KTS), AND 081257Z
SAR DATA REVEALING 135-141KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. ALL
WIND RADII HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON MEASUREMENTS FROM THE RECENT
ASCAT AND SAR DATA. TC FARAJI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH
THROUGH A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF LOW (5-10
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) OFFSET BY LIMITED EASTWARD OUTFLOW. DIFFERING
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, TC 19S SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFIED OVER
THE PAST TWELVE HOURS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER,
AFTER SYNOPTIC TIME, THE EYE BEGAN TO BECOME SLIGHTLY DEFORMED,
INDICATING A POTENTIAL DECLINE WITHIN THE SYSTEM. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT TC 19S WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FIRST
24 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM TURNS
SOUTHEASTWARD. AT THIS TIME, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED
TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE
AND DRIVE TC 19S SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 48, SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
96, AND THEN WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AFTER
TAU 36, INCREASING VWS AND POSSIBLE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL RESULT
IN STEADY WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST TO 45 KTS
BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 36 WITH A SPREAD OF 60 NM. AFTERWARDS, UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST PLACES ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED TRACK AS MODEL SPREAD INCREASES. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED JUST TO THE
RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE TRACK BIAS INDUCED
BY THE NAVGEM OUTLIER IN THE LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090900Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN 
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