簽到天數: 1715 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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howard2639|2011-9-25 16:32
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本帖最後由 howard2639 於 2011-9-25 16:38 編輯
JTWC第八報
WTPN31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (NESAT) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 14.7N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 128.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 14.9N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.4N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.9N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.7N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.2N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.5N 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.2N 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 128.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A
250459Z AMSR-E IMAGE INDICATE A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND AMSR-E
IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS, BASED ON
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65-78 KNOTS. TY 20W IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 BUT DIVERGES IN THE EXTENDED TAUS (430 NM SPREAD IN
TAU 120 FORECASTS) PRIMARILY DUE TO THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH TRACKS
THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD (INTO THE STEERING RIDGE) TOWARD HONG KONG.
EXCLUDING THE GFS MODEL, THE SPREAD IS SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER AT 240
NM AND IS CENTERED OVER HAINAN ISLAND. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
POSITIONED SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAU 96/120 MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECASTS. TY 20W IS STILL EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER LUZON AND SHOULD REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY BETWEEN 115-130 KNOTS BY TAU 36. TY 20W WILL WEAKEN AS IT
CROSSES LUZON BUT SHOULD RE-STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 21W (HAITANG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
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