|
|
c789654|2011-9-27 05:55
|
顯示全部樓層
WTPN31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (NESAT) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 16.3N 122.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 122.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.7N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.4N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.0N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.5N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.6N 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 20.1N 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 20.5N 105.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 122.4E.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A 30-NM RAGGED
EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES, PGTW,
AND RJTD RANGING FROM 90 TO 115 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TY 20W HAS DEVELOPED ITS OWN MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT, CREATING
AN EXCEPTIONALLY EFFICIENT ALL-AROUND OUTFLOW AND OFFSETTING
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL
RADIAL OUTFLOW IS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TYPHOON NESAT IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL INTO CENTRAL LUZON OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH MINIMAL
SLOWDOWN AND EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) AT A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SCS
WILL PROMOTE SOME INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT MAKES A SECOND LANDFALL
INTO HAINAN AFTER TAU 72. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND
INTERACTION WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS
OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN BEFORE MAKING ONE FINAL LANDFALL INTO
VIETNAM NEAR HANOI, BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 34 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (HAITANG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
|
評分
-
查看全部評分
|
