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c789654|2011-9-28 05:47
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WTPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (NESAT) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 17.3N 117.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 117.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.9N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.7N 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.3N 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.8N 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 20.3N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 20.5N 104.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 117.3E.
TYPHOON (TY)20W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION DESPITE
INDICATION OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH POOR CONFIDENCE AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS SUPPORTED BY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 20W IS
SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
CAUSED BY A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. TYPHOON
NESAT IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND IS EXPTECTED TO REMAIN ON THIS
TRACK FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL IN EXCESS OF 28 CELSIUS AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW WILL OFFSET THE MODERATE VWS AND SUBSIDENCE AND PROMOTE SOME
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THE SYSTEM CROSSES
HAINAN, IT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN, DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND
INCREASING VWS, BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL INTO VIETNAM, SOUTHEAST OF
HANOI. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THIS TRACK FORECAST IS IN UNISON WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 22W (NALGAE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
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