|
|
c789654|2011-9-26 05:43
|
顯示全部樓層
WTPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (NESAT) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 14.6N 126.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 126.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.1N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.7N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.2N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 16.8N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 17.9N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.2N 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.3N 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 126.4E.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MILD INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A PGTW
DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 75 KNOTS, WHICH IS A 10 KNOT INCREASE OVER THE
PREVIOUS ANALYSIS. TY 20W IS AT THE POINT IN ITS TRACK WHERE IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION, BUT THE DEVELOPMENT
HAS BEEN LAGGING EXPECTATIONS. A BUOY REPORT FROM ALONG TRACK
REVEALS A 29 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, ONE TO TWO DEGREES
LOWER THAN EXPECTED, WHILE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THERE IS MILD IMPINGEMENT TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALONG THE 20TH
LATITUDE. NONETHELESS, IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISMISS A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO, AS TY 20W HAS OVER 300 NM TO GO BEFORE
LANDFALL AND REMAINS UNDER LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH EXTREMELY WELL-DEVELOPED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE
MOST RECENT INFRARED ANIMATION SHOWS A SURGE IN COLD CONVECTIVE
CLOUD TOPS AND A PRONOUNCED TREND TOWARDS CONSOLIDATION. A 251105Z
SSMIS 37 GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED A THICK BANDING
RING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH IS A TELLING
SIGN OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. A 251314Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALED A
SIGNIFICANT SPREADING OF BOTH GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS AWAY FROM
THE LLCC, AND AT THE TIME INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWED A TONGUE OF
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR FEEDING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT. AT THE TIME,
THE ENERGY MAY HAVE BEEN DISPERSED OVER TOO WIDE AN AREA FOR THE
STORM TO INTENSIFY. THE TWO MOST RECENT MICROWAVE SERIES, A 251701Z
AMSRE AND A 251805Z TRMM IMAGE, INDICATE THAT TY 20W IS RE-
CONSOLIDATING. COUPLED WITH THE INTENSIFICATION AND ABSORPTION OF
THE DRY TONGUE OBSERVED ON INFRARED ANIMATION BETWEEN 1600 AND
2100Z, THESE INDICATORS IMPLY THAT TY 20W MAY YET UNDERGO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. EVEN SO, WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED WITHIN 30 HOURS, TY
20W MAY NOT QUITE RAMP UP TO SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY. TRACK GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD DURING THE PAST 48 HOURS BUT IS BECOMING MUCH
MORE FOCUSED ON LANDFALL NOT FAR FROM CASIGURAN AND A TRACK FAIRLY
CLOSE TO BAGUIO. TIME OVER LAND STILL LOOKS TO BE 12 TO 15 HOURS,
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT A 40 PER CENT DECLINE IN INTENSITY BY THE
TIME THE STORM MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS). HIGHER SHEAR
AND COOLER WATERS OVER THE SCS WILL MAKE FOR ONLY MILD RE-
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE SCS. THE EXTENDED RANGE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS
ALSO STEADILY DRIFTED SOUTH, BUT HAS ALSO COME INTO MUCH TIGHTER
AGREEMENT. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FOCUSED ON A TRACK TOWARDS
HAINAN. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS JUST AHEAD OF AND CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS, WHILE THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE GUIDANCE DUE
TO THE CONTINUED EXPECTATION OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (HAITANG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
|
評分
-
查看全部評分
|
