簽到天數: 1715 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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howard2639|2011-10-1 17:56
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本帖最後由 howard2639 於 2011-10-1 18:00 編輯
WTPN33 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 16.5N 120.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 120.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.6N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.8N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.0N 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.2N 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.4N 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.6N 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 17.5N 105.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 120.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM NORTH OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE
EYE HAS FILLED AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE WEAKENING AS TY 22W TRACKS OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
LUZON. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE WEAKENED CONVECTION AND A RJTD
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 102 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TY 22W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE MAJOR STEERING
INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS ACROSS LUZON AND EMERGE OVER THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, IT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE
TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION. AFTER TAU 96,
TY 22W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM AND QUICKLY WEAKEN OVER LAND.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR WBAR AND
GFDN, WHICH TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE STEERING RIDGE.
ALSO, GFS SLOWS THE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT
ANALYZES A WEAKENING STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. ECMWF, NOGAPS, AND
JGSM MAINTAIN A STRONG STEERING RIDGE; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS
MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THESE MODELS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z,
012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.//
NNNN
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