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c789654|2011-10-2 17:48
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WTPN33 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 021
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 22W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 16.7N 116.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 116.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.0N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.1N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.3N 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.6N 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.2N 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 17.8N 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 17.7N 103.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 116.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
BROKEN DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A 020637Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS A LARGE CONVECTIVE BAND LOOSELY WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE NORTH.
ALSO, A 020124Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS STRONG GRADIENT FLOW (35 TO 45
KNOTS) ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF AN ELONGATED
LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE TRMM AND MSI WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 65 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 22W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. INTENSIFICATION WILL BE HINDERED BY THE VWS AND A COOLER
PATCH OF WATER, ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFY ONCE IT MOVES BACK OVER WARMER WATER. AFTER TAU 48, TS 22W
SHOULD TRACK JUST SOUTH OF HAINAN AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION. IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM AFTER TAU 72 AND
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR WBAR, WHICH TRACKS
THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE STEERING RIDGE. ADDITIONALLY, GFS
DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM OVER HAINAN. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE MODEL ERRORS. THIS FORECAST
INTENSITY IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS BECAUSE THE SYSTEM
HAS WEAKENED MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AFTER CROSSING OVER
LUZON. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.//
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