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c789654|2011-10-5 05:30
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WTPN33 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 18.6N 108.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 108.4E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.4N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.0N 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 17.3N 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
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REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 108.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR)
SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 041900Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
ON THE EXTREME WESTERN PERIPHERY WHICH IS DECOUPLED FROM THE LLCC
DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION WITH HAINAN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE ANIMATED IR AND AMSU IMAGE WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PREVIOUS OBSERVATIONS OF 30 KNOTS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN HAINAN AND AN RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30
KNOTS. TD 22W WILL CONTINUE TO STEER ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIMETER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. NALGAE WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY
AT 30 KNOTS AS IT TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF TONKIN DUE TO
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) BUT WILL BE
INHIBITED FROM FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BY CONTINUED MODERATE (20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TD 22W WILL MAKE LANDFALL BY TAU 24 AND
DISSIPATE OVER VIETNAM BY TAU 36. THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS
DEGRADED BY THE ECMWF AND GFDN TRACKERS WHICH PICK UP ON LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND THEREFORE BRING NALGAE ON A
UNLIKELY SOUTHEASTERN TRACK BACK OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA. WBAR CONTINUES TO BE THE RIGHT MOST OUTLIER OF THE AIDS.
THIS FORECAST IS MORE INLINE WITH THE JGSM AND EGRR SOLUTIONS WHICH
HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY STABLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND
052100Z.//
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