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c789654|2011-10-3 05:03
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WTPN33 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 17.4N 114.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 114.6E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.7N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.0N 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.2N 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.4N 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.4N 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
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96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 18.1N 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 114.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED WEAKENED CENTRAL CONVECTION EVEN AS BANDING TO THE
NORTH APPEARED TO CONSOLIDATE. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON
THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS TO THE SOUTH OF A
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE AND LOW (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS JUST DRIFTED INTO A POOL OF COOLER
WATER, OFFSETTING THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. IT IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TS 22W WILL BRUSH THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAINAN
BY TAU 36, TRIGGERING ITS STEADY DETERIORATION. NALGAE WILL MAKE
LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM AFTER TAU 72 AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
HAS BECOME MORE SPREAD OUT TOWARD THE EXTENDED TAUS WITH NOGAPS TO
THE LEFT AND WBAR TO THE FAR RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS FORECAST
IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF MODEL CONSENSUS AT THE EXTENDED TAUS TO
COMPENSATE FOR WBAR'S UNLIKELY PULL INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//
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