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c789654|2011-10-4 19:16
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WTPN33 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 18.9N 110.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 110.1E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.2N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.2N 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.7N 105.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.0N 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
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REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 109.7E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 24 FEET.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION
VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TS 22W HAS TRACKED INLAND
INTO SOUTHEASTERN HAINAN. DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE, AIDED IN PART BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF WESTERN
HAINAN, AND IS BEING SHEARED SHARPLY TO THE WEST. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM PRESSURE REPORTS FROM SANYA,
HAINAN, WHICH WAS APPROXIMATELY 40 NM AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AT 040600Z. TS 22W HAS TRACKED ABRUPTLY
POLEWARD TOWARDS A TRANSITORY WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. THE STORM WILL RESUME WESTWARD MOVEMENT DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A STRENGTHENING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE SETS UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN CHINESE COAST. THE 040000Z UPPER
AIR SOUNDING FROM HAIKOU, CHINA SHOWS STRONG EASTERLIES BEGINNING AT
THE GRADIENT LEVEL, INDICATING THE RIDGE IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED AND
WILL BLOCK FURTHER POLEWARD MOVEMENT. THE PGTW 040000Z UPPER LEVEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TS 22W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
DIFFLUENT FLOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIMETER OF THE ANTICYCLONE,
WHICH IS COMPENSATING SOME OF THE EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN HAINAN AND THE VIETNAMESE COAST ARE 28 TO 30
DEGREES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL STRETCHING TO THE NORTHEAST AND WELL-DEVELOPED EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. BECAUSE OF THE WARM WATERS AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS TO BE EXPECTED AFTER
TS 22W MOVES OUT OF HAINAN AND INTO OPEN WATERS. DESPITE THE RE-
INTENSIFICATION HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO
LAST LONG ONCE IT MAKES LANDFALL, AND WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY OVER
LAND.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.
//
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