老農民版夜神月

JMA發布Warning

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 12.4N 178.1E MIDWAYS MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

老農民版夜神月

ASCAT最新風場支持30KT左右強度,JTWC00Z亦定強30KT

16W SIXTEEN 210811 0000 12.5N 177.0E WPAC 30 1006

老農民版夜神月

JTWC暫不再上望TS

WTPN31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 006   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z --- NEAR 12.1N 175.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 175.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 12.1N 173.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 12.3N 170.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 12.2N 168.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 12.0N 166.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 11.9N 160.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 11.7N 155.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 12.1N 149.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 174.6E.
11AUG21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
471 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.
//
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老農民版夜神月

ASCAT最新風場,過濾前有40KT旗幟

周子堯@FB

明後4日，經過TUTT帶受限於較強風切，發展不易。
另值得注意的是，目前位於162E、20N有冷心低壓發展，
帶給16W良好的輻散環境，同時也會削弱風切。
到了145E附近(近關島)，隨著冷心低壓的西北移動，強風切帶帶離，
加上OHC、SST優異，有發展機會。
部分模式預測8-10天後，將來到台灣以東海域，值得關注。

老農民版夜神月

JTWC看好4天后成颱,5天後40KT

老農民版夜神月

...結果JTWC00Z就直接升格TS了

16W SIXTEEN 210813 0000 12.7N 168.6E WPAC 35 1007

老農民版夜神月

JTWC新報,支持維持TS下限強度一路西進後於+96H~120h後再增強至40~45KT強度

TPPN11 PGTW 130009

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (NE KWAJALEIN)

B. 12/2330Z

C. 12.73N

D. 168.63E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREES. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   12/1937Z  12.73N  169.48E  SSMS


   DESSINO

WTPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 011   
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130000Z --- NEAR 12.7N 168.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 168.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 12.5N 166.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 12.4N 163.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 12.4N 160.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 12.4N 157.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 12.4N 151.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 12.5N 146.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 13.4N 142.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 167.9E.
13AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245
NM NORTH OF KWAJALEIN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.
//
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