老農民版夜神月

昨晚的風場掃描顯示風力已達TD(25~30KT)強度,惟可能因LLCC型態仍不佳
所以各大機構除了原本就已TD的JMA外均仍未進行升格

周子堯@FB

清晨JTWC再度發布TCFA，並分析T值1.0/1.0，另EC有調強調西趨勢

TPPN11 PGTW 190034

A. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (W OF GUAM)

B. 19/0000Z

C. 16.86N

D. 135.33E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   18/1929Z  16.02N  136.25E  SSMS


   MARTIN

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
185 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.3N 137.4E TO 20.2N 130.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6N 137.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 16W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.3N 138.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 137.1E, APPROXIMATELY
830 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB. A 181627Z ASMR2 89GHZ PASS REVEALS
FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY AS WELL AS
BANDING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY RADIAL OUTFLOW,
LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
THAT INVEST 16W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

蔡秉勳

風場掃描看起來經過幾次對流爆發，東半邊風場建立起來了，
但是LLCC外露是怎麼回事，系統北側自己製造的風切切離的嗎？
極向流出也沒那麼好了，命運多舛

老農民版夜神月

JTWC於00Z一度將其升格為TD,而後卻又再修改為DB

WP, 16, 2021081900,   , BEST,   0, 168N, 1354E,  25, 1004, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  125,  40,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,    SIXTEEN,  ,

WP, 16, 2021081900,   , BEST,   0, 168N, 1354E,  20, 1005, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  125,  40,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,    SIXTEEN, S,

另外補上ASCAT00~01Z左右的完整最新風場掃描圖三張

(過濾前)


(過濾後)

t02436

JTWC 12Z再次升格TD，趨向琉球群島，巔峰上望40節。

king111807

難得的八月鋒面即將離開，

週六之前，各地天氣將稍微回穩，

午後雷陣雨還是會有，

但會比今天少，也比較集中在山區。

-

至於低壓１６Ｗ，

目前終於跋涉到菲律賓以東海面，

結構還是不好，但還活著，

這個週末將從台灣東方快速北上。

.

雖然在北上的過程中，

還是有一點點增強的可能，

但因為範圍小，結構又東強西弱，

頂多就帶來幾陣雨，

或讓週日～週一的午後陣雨再變多一些，

但對台灣整體影響不大。

-

而展望下星期中，

太平洋高壓再向西增強，

目前看來，好天氣機率高囉～

老農民版夜神月

EC12Z系集

老農民版夜神月

JTWC21Z新報定強30節,並預測+12H內達35節(即TS強度),+36H後達其巔峰45節

另外由於此系統可能處於命名於否的邊緣,所以需特別注意JMA對其的反應

WTPN31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 030   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191800Z --- NEAR 18.5N 132.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 132.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 20.1N 130.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 21.5N 129.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 23.1N 128.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 24.6N 127.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 28.9N 126.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 34.8N 130.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 131.8E.
19AUG21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
538 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.//
NNNN