2112 奧麥斯自中太長途跋涉12天終命名影響日韓後轉化

周子堯@FB · 2021-8-18 07:36

JTWC 下調17/12Z風速為20kts，並於18Z定強為15kts

16W SIXTEEN 210817 1800 13.9N 139.9E WPAC 15 1012

20210817.2300.himawari-8.vis.16W.SIXTEEN.15kts.1012mb.13.9N.139.9E.100pc.jpg

老農民版夜神月 · 2021-8-18 08:03

JMA於稍早的天氣圖中預測其將退化為LPA(低壓帶)
20210817203830_0_Z__C_010000_20210817180000_MET_CHT_JCIasas_JCP600x512_JRcolor_T.png

20210817190300_0_Z__C_010000_20210817120000_MET_CHT_JCIfsas48_JCP600x512_JRcolor.png

20210817190100_0_Z__C_010000_20210817120000_MET_CHT_JCIfsas24_JCP600x512_JRcolor.png

老農民版夜神月 · 2021-8-18 09:51

周子堯@FB 發表於 2021-8-18 07:36
JTWC 下調17/12Z風速為20kts，並於18Z定強為15kts

ASCAT早晨最新風場支持LLCC附近20~25節,JTWC00Z重新提升定強至20KT

16W SIXTEEN 210818 0000 14.0N 139.3E WPAC 20 1010

20210817.2234.mta.ASCAT.wind.16W.SIXTEEN.15kts-1012mb.139N.1399E.25km.noqc.jpeg

老農民版夜神月 · 2021-8-18 09:54

本帖最後由老農民版夜神月於 2021-8-18 10:00 編輯

EC18Z最新系集,支持以熱低壓強度持續發展甚至成颱的系集相較前幾報持續有所增多

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老農民版夜神月 · 2021-8-18 10:36

然而很遺憾,CWB終究於00Z決定降格16W為低氣壓

07fW01186
中央氣象局氣象報告
１１０年８月１８日１１時０分發布
８月１８日８時天氣概況：
一、滯留鋒起自琉球海面（北緯２８度，東經１２７度），向西南西延伸，經臺灣北部海面（北緯２６度，東經１２１度）至廣西（北緯２６度，東經１１１度）。
二、低氣壓１００６百帕，在北緯１４度，東經１４０度，即在關島西南方海面，向西北西移動，時速２０公里。
三、今、明（１８日、１９日）兩天鋒面位於臺灣北部海面，臺灣中部以北、東北部地區及澎湖、金門、馬祖有局部短暫陣雨或雷雨，馬祖易有短延時強降雨，並有局部較大雨勢發生的機率，南部地區亦有零星短暫陣雨或雷雨，其他地區為多雲，午後有局部短暫雷陣雨，各地午後並有局部大雨發生的機率；今日馬祖易有低雲影響能見度，請注意。

周子堯@FB · 2021-8-18 12:54

本帖最後由周子堯@FB 於 2021-8-18 12:55 編輯

目前僅剩JMA維持TD強度，其餘各國皆降格LPA；部分模式認為到130E附近，MJO有轉向南海、菲東機會，TD14有重新發展跡象

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 14N 140E WNW 15 KT.

20210818021101_0_Z__C_010000_20210818000000_MET_CHT_JCIspas_JCP600x581_JRcolor_T.png

20210818.0300.gpm.89pct89h89v.16W.SIXTEEN.15kts.1010mb.14N.139.3E.025pc.jpg

20210818.0420.himawari-8.vis.16W.SIXTEEN.15kts.1010mb.14N.139.3E.100pc.jpg

老農民版夜神月 · 2021-8-19 04:49

JTWC1930Z再發TCFA wp1621 (7).gif

WTPN21 PGTW 181930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 16W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
185 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.3N 137.4E TO 20.2N 130.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6N 137.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 16W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.3N 138.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 137.1E, APPROXIMATELY
830 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB. A 181627Z ASMR2 89GHZ PASS REVEALS
FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY AS WELL AS
BANDING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY RADIAL OUTFLOW,
LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
THAT INVEST 16W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
191930Z.//
NNNN