簽到天數: 1650 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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老農民版夜神月|2021-8-17 17:42
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JTWC發布FW,並評級Medium
- WTPN31 PGTW 170900
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
- RMKS/
- 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 028
- 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
- MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
- WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
- ---
- WARNING POSITION:
- 170600Z --- NEAR 13.4N 143.9E
- MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
- POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
- POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
- PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
- MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
- WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
- DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
- REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 143.9E
- ---
- FORECASTS:
- 12 HRS, VALID AT:
- 171800Z --- 13.8N 141.3E
- MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
- WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
- DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
- VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
- ---
- 24 HRS, VALID AT:
- 180600Z --- 14.6N 139.0E
- MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
- WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
- DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
- ---
- REMARKS:
- 170900Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 143.3E.
- 17AUG21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
- 61 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12
- KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
- IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF WEAK, UPPER LEVEL CONVECTION
- THAT WRAP INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. COMPOSITE
- RADAR IMAGERY AND A 170344Z 165 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT SHALLOW CONVECTION
- SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WITH POCKETS OF DEEPER, ALBEIT
- DISORGANIZED, CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE COMBINATION
- OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY LEND ONLY MEDIUM
- CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE
- LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 20 KTS IS PLACED
- WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OVERALL LACK OF ORGANIZED
- CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH VERY
- WARM SST VALUES (31-32 CELSIUS) OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL
- WIND SHEAR (20-30 KTS). ADDITIONALLY, NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS
- FROM RIDGING TO THE NORTH IS FURTHER HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. OVER THE
- NEXT 24 HOURS TD 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO
- WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
- RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND STRUGGLE TO CONSOLIDATE DUE TO THE
- CONTINUED MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
- TIGHT AGREEMENT, AND LENDS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
- TRACK, HOWEVER THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
- DUE TO A HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
- SPECIFICALLY, THE HWRF AND COAMPS MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT SYSTEM
- INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 25 KTS BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 48, HOWEVER GLOBAL
- MODELS DO NOT DEPICT THIS INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO. THIS REFLECTS
- THE CURRENT COMPLEX AND UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT THAT,
- IN ADDITION TO THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT, HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE
- AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER WESTWARD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
- THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
- WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 15 FEET.
- //
- NNNN
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