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本帖最後由 Meow 於 2014-8-2 13:59 編輯
JTWC 三度發佈 TCFA，12W 終於不用等到第 14 號颱風了？:lol
WTPN21 PGTW 020530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 32.1N 124.9E TO 35.7N 124.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 TO 40 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 020500Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 124.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 30.3N
125.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 124.9E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SEOUL, KOREA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY FROM THE SOUTH
QUADRANT INTO THE NORTH QUADRANT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED
DISPLACED OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THIS MONSOON DEPRESSION,
HOWEVER, THE SURFACE WIND FIELD HAS CONTRACTED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS AND THE CURRENT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS 90 TO 110 NM BASED
ON A 020159Z ASCAT IMAGE. A 020438Z NOAA-19 IMAGE INDICATES TIGHTLY-
WRAPPED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER WITH FRAGMENTED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 011943Z AMSU CROSS-SECTION SUPPORTS A
WARM-CORE SYSTEM AND SHOWS A DEFINED WARM ANOMALY OF +2C. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 26 TO 27C. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. OVERALL,
THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD, RE-CURVING INTO THE CENTRAL
KOREAN PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
35 TO 40 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
987 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030530Z.//
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