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sh991016|2014-7-22 01:06
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本帖最後由 sh991016 於 2014-7-22 01:09 編輯
晚間針對96w發出TCFA!!!
WTPN21 PGTW 211700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2N 143.8E TO 11.4N 137.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
211132Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N
142.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.3N
143.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 142.4E, APPROXIMATELY 143 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CONSOLIDATING DEEP CENTRALIZED CONVECTION OVER AN ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 211128Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LLCC, WITH
CORE WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THERE ARE ALSO STRONGER GRADIENT WINDS
FURTHER TO THE NORTH, AWAY FROM THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR WESTWARD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. DUE TO THE DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
221700Z.//
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