t02436

15Z維持155節評價，天佑巴哈馬...
913hPa 155KT

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 76.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...913 MB...26.96 INCHES

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

Air Force and NOAA reconnaissance planes penetrated the distinct
eye of Dorian, and found that the hurricane has become extremely
intense with a stadium effect in the eye. The NOAA plane reported a
peak flight-level wind of 159 kt, while the SFMR from both planes
have measured winds between 155 and 170 kt.  A dropsonde from the
NOAA plane measured a wind gust of 176 kt at the surface. A blend of
these measurements yield to an initial intensity of 155 kt, making
Dorian the strongest hurricane on record in the northwestern
Bahamas.

For the next few days, Dorian should experience some fluctuations in
intensity, and in addition to eyewall replacement cyclone, the
interaction with the northwestern Bahamas should weaken the
hurricane slightly. After 3 days, as Dorian moves northward along
or offshore of southeast United States coast, the shear is forecast
to increase, resulting in a more distinct gradual weakening.

Reconnaissance plane and satellite fixes indicate that Dorian, as
anticipated, has slowed down and is moving toward the west or 270
degrees at 6 kt. The steering currents are collapsing and Dorian is
expected to slow down even more, prolonging its catastrophic effects
in the northwestern Bahamas. The NHC forecast calls for a slow west
to west-northwest motion during the next 48 hours, with a turn to
the north and an increase in forward speed as the mid-level trough
along the eastern United States deepens and becomes the dominant
steering feature. The current forecast is only a few miles west of
the previous one and is basically on top of the multi-model
consensus. Both the deterministic and consensus tracks have shown
the usual variability to the right or to the left from run to run,
but the overall trend is for the hurricane to turn northward
offshore but very close to the Florida peninsula.

Given the uncertainty in the track forecast and the anticipated
increase in size of the hurricane, a Hurricane Watch and Storm
Surge Watch have been issued for a portion of the east Florida
coast. It is emphasized that although the official track forecast
does not show landfall, users should not focus on the exact track. A
small deviation to the left of the track could bring the intense
core of the hurricane its dangerous winds closer to or onto the
coast.

Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will
affect the Abaco Islands today. Everyone there should take immediate
shelter and not venture into the eye. These catastrophic conditions
are likely on Grand Bahama Island later today or tonight, and
efforts to protect life and property there should be rushed to
completion.

2. Storm surge and hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are
in effect for portions of the Florida east coast. Life-threatening
storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are possible along
portions of the Florida east coast through mid-week, as only a
slight deviation to the left of the official forecast would bring
the core of Dorian near or over the coast. Residents should listen
to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. There is an increasing likelihood of strong winds and dangerous
storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North
Carolina later this week. Residents in these areas should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian.

4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods,
are possible over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal
sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the
United States through late this week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 26.5N  76.8W  155 KT 180 MPH
12H  02/0000Z 26.6N  77.7W  150 KT 175 MPH
24H  02/1200Z 26.8N  78.5W  145 KT 165 MPH
36H  03/0000Z 27.0N  79.0W  135 KT 155 MPH
48H  03/1200Z 27.4N  79.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
72H  04/1200Z 29.7N  80.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
96H  05/1200Z 32.5N  79.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 35.5N  74.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN

ben811018

存圖啦
(好難得...)

t02436

1645Z加報更新，中心已於1640Z登陸
巴哈馬大阿巴科島已進入風眼中心
160KT 911hPa

763
WTNT65 KNHC 011644
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1245 pm EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL ON ELBOW CAY IN THE
ABACOS...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
satellite data indicate that Dorian has made landfall at 1240 pm
EDT (1640 UTC) in Elbow Cay, Abacos. The winds have increased
to 185 mph (295 km/h) with the minimum central pressure falling to
911 mb (26.90 inches).

This is a life-threatening situation.  Residents there should take
immediate shelter.  Do not venture into the eye if it passes over
your location.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas
and will continue for several hours.


SUMMARY OF 1245 PM EDT...1645 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Avila/Blake

584
URNT12 KNHC 011648
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL052019
A. 01/16:23:30Z
B. 26.50 deg N 076.93 deg W
C. 700 mb 2324 m
D. 913 mb
E. 280 deg 18 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C13
H. 171 kt
I. 131 deg 6 nm 16:21:30Z
J. 229 deg 154 kt
K. 131 deg 7 nm 16:21:00Z
L. 177 kt
M. 341 deg 9 nm 16:27:00Z
N. 073 deg 161 kt
O. 343 deg 10 nm 16:27:30Z
P. 8 C / 3057 m
Q. 24 C / 3044 m
R. 4 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF302 2805A DORIAN OB 30
MAX FL WIND 161 KT 343 / 10 NM 16:27:30Z
;

t02436

評價160節 911百帕正報

000
WTNT45 KNHC 012056
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

The distinct eye of powerful Hurricane Dorian is moving over
Great Abaco.  The latest wind and pressure data from an Air Force
reconnaissance plane just before the eye hit the island indicated
that the winds reached 160 kt, which is the initial intensity for
this advisory. It is not very often that we measure such strong
winds. The minimum pressure measured by the plane was 910 mb.

The eye has been shrinking, and an eyewall replacement cycle is
possibly occurring.  The effect of the island terrain and the
eyewall replacement cycle should result in some slight fluctuations
in intensity during the next 24 to 36 hours, but the hurricane will
continue to be extremely dangerous one during that time. After 3
days, a more definite weakening trend should begin as the hurricane
encounters stronger shear. Dorian however, it is forecast to remain
a hurricane for the next 5 days.

Dorian has slowed down even more and is now moving toward the west
or 270 degrees at 4 kt. The steering currents are collapsing and
Dorian is expected to slow down a little more, prolonging its
catastrophic effects in the northwestern Bahamas. The NHC forecast
calls for a slow west to west-northwest motion during the next 48
hours. A turn to the north and northeast with a gradual increase in
forward speed is expected thereafter, as the mid-level trough over
the eastern United States deepens.  The current forecast is not very
different from the previous one, and it is very close to the
multi-model consensus TVCA. Both the deterministic and consensus
tracks have shown the usual variability to the right or to the left
from run to run, but the overall trend is for the hurricane to turn
northward offshore but dangerously close to the Florida peninsula.

Given the uncertainty in the track forecast and the anticipated
increase in size of the hurricane, a Hurricane Warning and Storm
Surge Warning have been issued for a portion of the Florida east
coast. It is once again emphasized that although the official track
forecast does not show landfall, users should not focus on the exact
track. A small deviation to the left of the track could bring the
intense core of the hurricane its dangerous winds closer to or onto
the Florida coast.

Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will
affect the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island tonight. Everyone
there should take immediate shelter and not venture into the eye.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are expected along portions of the Florida east coast through
mid-week, and storm surge and hurricane warnings are in effect. Only
a slight deviation to the left of the official forecast would bring
the core of Dorian near or over the Florida east coast. Residents
should listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. There is an increasing likelihood of strong winds and dangerous
storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, North
Carolina later this week. Residents in these areas should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian and listen to advice given by
local emergency officials.

4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods,
are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal
sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the
United States through late this week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 26.6N  77.3W  160 KT 185 MPH
12H  02/0600Z 26.7N  78.1W  155 KT 180 MPH
24H  02/1800Z 26.8N  78.7W  145 KT 165 MPH
36H  03/0600Z 27.0N  79.0W  135 KT 155 MPH
48H  03/1800Z 27.7N  79.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
72H  04/1800Z 30.0N  80.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
96H  05/1800Z 33.0N  78.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 36.5N  73.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

typhoonman

老農民版夜神月 發表於 2019-8-25 09:09
NHC24/21Z升格TS,命名Dorian,巔峰暫時上望颶風75節

https://youtu.be/6coyXpORKRM
來分享一下颶風獵人飛進Dorian颶風眼內的影片吧！

蜜露

剛研究了一下其實我發現，這SFMR有問題的


他的投落儀兩次都分別是160Kts、177kts


這其實是陣風








177kts換算一分鐘正是155kts






機構給予 : 911hPa  160kts
巔峰推測 : 907.8hPa
投落儀 　: 177kts(陣風)  換算一分鐘 155kts

風速實測跟艾瑪差不多，我覺得比2017颶風艾瑪稍差一點點，艾瑪真的霸氣多了。

霧峰追風者

巔峰已過，逐漸北上，對佛州威脅已大幅降低。

426
WTNT45 KNHC 022046
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

Dorian remains an impressive hurricane in satellite imagery.
Recent radar and aircraft observations are again showing signs of
a concentric eyewall structure which might be one of the factors
that has led to a decrease in the peak winds and a small expansion
of the wind field.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
reported peak flight-level winds of 129 kt, SFMR winds of 121
kt, and a central pressure that has risen to 940 mb. Based on these
observations, the initial wind speed has been set at 125 kt.  Some
additional decrease in wind speed is likely in the short term due
due to a possible eyewall replacement and upwelling of cooler
waters caused by the very slow motion of the hurricane. Although
some additional slow weakening is forecast while the hurricane moves
northward along the southeastern United States coastline due to
increasing southwesterly shear, Dorian is forecast to remain a
powerful hurricane during that time.  The NHC intensity forecast
forecast is a blend of the latest statistical and and consensus
model guidance.

Dorian has become nearly stationary this afternoon with the two most
recent aircraft fixes showing essentially no motion.  A slow
westward to west-northwestward motion should resume overnight and
continue into early Tuesday, with the eye and devastating winds only
slowly pulling away from Grand Bahama Island.  By Tuesday afternoon,
Dorian should begin its much anticipated northwestward turn as a
weakness becomes more pronounced in the subtropical ridge.  Although
the center of Dorian is forecast to move near, but parallel to, the
Florida east coast, only a small deviation of the track toward the
west would bring the core of the hurricane onshore.  A broad mid-
latitude trough should help turn Dorian northeastward by Wednesday
night, and the track models show the center coming precariously
close to the southeastern United States coast.  The tracks from the
1200 UTC runs of the global models have remained fairly stable,
which has resulted in little overall change to the latest NHC track
forecast.

Users are reminded that the hurricane is not a point, and that
life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds extend far
from the center. Regardless of the exact forecast track, strong
winds and a life-threatening storm surge are likely along a portion
of the U.S east coast from Florida through the Carolinas.

Key Messages:

1. Devastating winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand
Bahama Island through tonight. Everyone there should remain in
shelter and not venture into the eye.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts
of Georgia and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of
Dorian's center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of
the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
winds continues to increase along the coast North Carolina.
Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
emergency officials.

4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods,
are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal
sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the
United States through Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 26.8N  78.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
12H  03/0600Z 27.0N  78.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
24H  03/1800Z 27.6N  79.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
36H  04/0600Z 28.7N  79.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
48H  04/1800Z 30.0N  80.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
72H  05/1800Z 32.8N  78.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  06/1800Z 36.6N  73.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 43.5N  64.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

Meow

Josh Morgerman:

Yep, I’m alive. Made it to Nassau. #Hurricane #DORIAN: By far the most intense cyclone I’ve witnessed in 28 years of chasing. Thought I was playing it safe by riding it out in a solid-concrete school on a hill in Marsh Harbour. Thought wrong.

Winds pounded the building with the force of a thousand sledgehammers. Crept out during eye to find school mostly destroyed, cars in parking lot thrown around & mutilated. Barometer said 913.4 mb.

Frantically piled into few functioning cars (one of them mine) & relocated to government complex before backside struck. Building filled with terrorized refugees, many who had  swam to safety or abandoned collapsed houses. The calm eye saved lives—gave victims chance to relocate.

Whole neighborhoods were swept by mighty surge higher than anything in memory. Areas above water had catastrophic wind damage. Many deaths reported from drowning, flying debris, & collapsing houses. Medical clinic overwhelmed. An absolute catastrophe. SEND HELP TO ABACO ISLANDS.